Market Trends: 10/13/2011

Fernandina Beach Real Estate Market Trends: 10/10/2011

American consumers pay close attention to economic news and what policymakers say, and they continue to link their personal financial outlook to events occurring nationally. As a result, Fannie Mae’s September National Housing Survey finds most consumers still pessimistic about the economy, home prices and household finances.
“Despite a decline in negative economic headlines during September … consumers continue to demonstrate very negative attitudes,” says Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “At the same time, the share of consumers expecting mortgage rates to go up dropped sharply to the lowest level we have recorded. The lack of a sense of urgency to buy homes … coupled with general pessimism regarding their own personal finances and the economy, bodes poorly for the recovery of the housing market.”

Survey highlights

Homeownership and renting

• Only 33 percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months (down 12 percentage points since August – the lowest number recorded in Fannie Mae’s monthly tracking).

• For the fourth month in a row, Americans expect home prices to decline over the next year. On average, Americans expect home prices to go down by 1.1 percent, the highest expected decline to date.

• Only 18 percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, the lowest reported number to date in the National Housing Survey, while 25 percent say they expect home prices to decline (down by 2 percentage points since August).

• While 68 percent of Americans say it is a good time to buy a home (down 1 percentage point since last month), only 10 percent of those polled say it is a good time to sell one’s home (up by 1 percentage point since August).

• On average, Americans expect home rental prices to go up by 3.3 percent over the next year, down slightly from the expected increase of 3.5 percent observed in August.

• Despite continued consumer caution about taking on a large financial obligation to buy a home, 63 percent say they would buy their next home if they were going to move (up by 1 percentage point since August), while 32 percent of Americans say they would rent their next home (down 2 percentage points since last month).

The economy and household finances

• The number of Americans who expect their personal financial situation to worsen over the next year has decreased for the first time in four months (down from 22 percent in August to 19 percent in September).

• Seventy-seven percent say the economy is on the wrong track (down only 1 percentage point from last month), while only 16 percent think the economy is on the right track (the same as in August).

• Forty-three percent report significantly higher expenses compared to one year ago. This number has increased for five consecutive months, but the majority of respondents still say their household income has remained the same.

Wells Fargo released its Economic Outlook for Florida yesterday, and the news was positive, though not by much. The company says the state is recovering more quickly that the nation in general, but part of the reason is that the state fell so far during the crash.
Still, the recession officially ended in 2009 and Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner say the chance of a second recession is relatively low. However, he also thinks the recovery will be anything but robust, calling it “incredibly sluggish.”

For a housing recovery, jobs are key, and the report foresees a total of 40,000 new jobs added by the end of this year and an additional 64,000 in 2012.

Vitner says Florida’s recovery seems to have some legs as it expands beyond the tourism and health areas. The report points to an upswing of jobs, albeit small, in retail and trade, as well as professional and business jobs.

Wells Fargo report predictions

• Foreclosures will continue to impact home prices.

• The number of foreign investors could decline. European money problems have dampened demand from across the Atlantic, while a weaker Canadian dollar has impacted the value to Canadians. The flow of investors from the Americas has also declined.

• People will continue to move to Florida, though at a still-subdued pace: an expected 110,000 in 2011 and predicted 130,000 in 2012.

• The Florida economy will continue to grow. Wells Fargo predicts 2 percent in 2011 and 2.2 percent in 2012.

• Floridians’ personal income will also grow: 4.2 percent in 2011 and 4.3 percent in 2012.

• Home construction, while improving, won’t hit its full stride again – 1.2 million new homes – until 2015.

U.S. single-family home prices declined 4.4 percent year over year in August, with Nevada and Arizona experiencing double-digit percentage declines and West Virginia seeing the largest increase, up 8.6 percent, according to an index by property data firm CoreLogic.

Excluding distressed sales, including short sales and real estate owned (REO) sales, the national index fell 0.7 percent year over year in August. On a month-to-month basis, the index dropped 0.4 percent in August, which was the first such decline in four months, CoreLogic reported.

Thirty-eight states experienced a year-over-year drop in the index in August, while half the states and Washington, D.C., experienced a year-over-year index rise when distressed sales were excluded. West Virginia posted a 10.7 percent year-over-year rise in the index, excluding sales of distressed properties.

The index incorporates 30 years of data for repeat sales transactions, and “price, time between sales, property type, loan type and distressed sales.”

The slight month-to-month national decline is not surprising, said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist, in a statement. He noted “renewed concerns over a double-dip recession, high negative equity, and the persistent levels of shadow inventory. The continued bright spot is the nondistressed segment of the market, which is only marginally lower than a year ago and continues to exhibit relative strength.”

Year-over-year index changes in August for the 10 largest U.S. urban centers (defined as “Core Based Statistical Areas”) by population ranged from a drop of 10.2 percent in the Chicago area to a rise of 3.2 percent in the New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., area. Excluding distressed sales, the year-over-year index changes in August ranged from an 8.2 percent drop in the Phoenix area to a 4 percent increase in the New York-White Plains-Wayne area.

Most (54%) mortgage experts polled by Bankrate.com this week expect rates to go up over the short term, while 15% expert further declines. Only 31% predict little change.

WASHINGTON – Oct. 7, 2011 – The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage this week fell below 4 percent for the first time ever, to 3.94 percent.

For those who can qualify, it’s an extraordinary opportunity to buy a home or refinance.

On Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average rate dropped from 4.01 percent last week, the previous low. The average rate on a 15-year fixed loan, a popular refinancing option, dipped to 3.26 percent, also a record. The 15-year loan has fallen for six straight weeks.

Mortgage rates are now lower than they were in the early 1950s, when the average rate reached 4.08 percent for a few months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Back then, mortgages typically lasted just 20 or 25 years.

Still, rates have been below 5 percent for all but two weeks in the past year, and that has done little to boost home sales. This year is shaping up to be among the worst for sales of previously occupied homes in 14 years.

“Interest rates are obviously not an impediment to housing. It’s uncertainty about the economy, about jobs, about incomes,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo. “It’s not a question of affordability. It’s simply a lack of wherewithal to buy a home or a lack of confidence to commit to buying one.”

Many people are reluctant to take the risk in this market. High unemployment, scant pay raises and heavy debt loads are deterring many would-be buyers.

Others can’t qualify for the historically low rates. Banks are insisting on higher credit scores. And many want first-time buyers to put down 20 percent. Few people have that much cash or home equity to satisfy the requirement.

“Considering how far mortgage rates have fallen, we’d expect to see more people refinancing and buying,” said Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s still the lack of jobs and the difficult credit environment that’s pushing most people away.”

Total mortgage applications fell more than 4 percent this week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinancing applications declined more than 5 percent.

Mike Fratantoni, the group’s vice president of research and economics, said potential borrowers “largely remained on the sidelines” and were “unimpressed” by the lowest rates in decades.

Mortgage rates have tumbled because they tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The yield has fallen in recent weeks, largely because investors are worried about the U.S. economy and the debt crisis in Europe. So they have shifted their money out of stocks and into the relative safety of Treasurys.

And they could fall even further now that the Federal Reserve has started shuffling its investment portfolio to try to lower long-term rates.

A drop in mortgage rates could provide some help to the economy if more people could refinance. When people refinance at lower rates, they pay less interest on their loans and have more money to spend.

Consider a homeowner who owes $250,000 and is paying 5.09 percent on a 30-year fixed mortgage. That was the average rate being offered in January 2010. Refinancing the loan at 3.94 percent could save him or her more than $2,000 a year.

But many homeowners with good jobs and stable finances have already refinanced. Until recently, any rate below 5 percent was considered extraordinarily low. Just five years ago, the best rate for a 30-year fixed loan was around 6.5 percent; a decade ago, it was near 8 percent.

Most economists say rates would need to fall at least a full percentage point before it makes sense to refinance again. The reason is homeowners typically pay a few thousand dollars in closing costs when they refinance. And the low rates being offered don’t include extra fees, known as points, which many borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.

The average fee for the 30-year and 15-year rose to 0.8. The average fees for both the five-year and one-year adjustable-rate loans were 0.6 and 0.5, respectively.

To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country Monday through Wednesday of each week.

The average rate on a five-year adjustable-rate mortgage fell to 2.96 percent. The average for the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage ticked up to 2.95 percent.

Bank of America, the nation’s largest mortgage servicer, is offering Florida homeowners up to $20,000 to short sale their homes rather than letting them linger in foreclosure.
The limited time offer has received little promotion from the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank, which sent emails to select Florida Realtors earlier this week outlining basic details of the plan.

Only homeowners whose short sales are submitted for approval to Bank of America before Nov. 30 will qualify. The homes must have no offers on them already and the closing must occur before Aug. 31, 2012.

A short sale is when a bank agrees to accept a lower sales price on a home than what the borrower owes on the loan.

Realtors said the Bank of America plan, which has a minimum payout amount of $5,000, is a genuine incentive to struggling homeowners who may otherwise fall into Florida’s foreclosure abyss.

The current timeline to foreclosure in Florida is an average of 676 days – nearly two years – according to real estate analysis company RealtyTrac. The national average foreclosure timeline is 318 days.

“I think this is a positive sign that the bank is being creative to try and help homeowners and get things moving,” said Paul Baltrun, who works with real estate and mortgages at the Law Office of Paul A. Krasker in West Palm Beach. “With real estate attorneys handling these cases, you’re talking two, three, four years before there’s going to be a resolution in a foreclosure.”

Guy Cecala, chief executive officer and publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, called the short sale payout a “bribe.”

“You can call it a relocation fee, but it’s basically a bribe to make sure the borrower leaves the house in good condition and in an orderly fashion,” Cecala said. “It makes good business sense considering you may have to put $20,000 into a foreclosed home to fix it up.”

Homeowners, especially ones who feel cheated by the bank, have been known to steal appliances and other fixtures, or damage the home.

“This might be the banks finally waking up that they can have someone in there with an incentive not to damage the property,” said Realtor Shannon Brink, with Re/Max Prestige Realty in West Palm Beach. “Isn’t it better to have someone taking care of the pool and keeping the air conditioner on?”

A spokesman for Bank of America said the program is being tested in Florida, and if successful, could be expanded to other states.

Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan Chase have similar short sale programs, sometimes called “cash for keys.”

Wells Fargo spokesman Jason Menke said his company offers up to $20,000 on eligible short sales that are left in “broom swept” condition. Although the program is not advertised, deals are mostly made on homes in states with lengthy foreclosure timelines, he said.

And caveats exist. The Wells Fargo short sale incentive is only good on first lien loans that it owns, which is about 20 percent of its total portfolio.

Bank of America’s plan excludes Ginnie Mae, Federal Housing Administration and VA loans.

Similar to the federal Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program, or HAFA, which offers $3,000 in relocation assistance, the Bank of America program may also waive a homeowner’s deficiency judgment at closing.

A deficiency judgment in a short sale is basically the difference between what the house sells for and what is still owed on the loan.

HAFA, which began in April 2010, has seen limited success with just 15,531 short sales completed nationwide through August.

But Realtors said cash for keys programs can work.

Joe Kendall, a broker associate at Sandals Realty in Fort Myers, said he recently closed on a short sale where the seller got $25,000 from Chase.

“They realize people are struggling and this is another way to get the homes off the books,” he said.

Pending home sales slipped in August with a mixed regional performance but are higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.  The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 1.2 percent to 88.6 in August from 89.7 in July but is 7.7 percent above August 2010 when it stood at 82.3. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the decline reflects an uneven market. “The biggest monthly decline was in the Northeast, which was significantly disrupted by Hurricane Irene in the closing weekend of August,” he says. “But broadly speaking, contract signing activity has been holding in a narrow range for many months.”

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 5.8 percent to 63.6 in August but is 1.3 percent higher than August 2010. In the Midwest the index declined 3.7 percent to 76.2 in August but is 8.2 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 2.6 percent to an index of 96.9 and are 7.6 percent higher than August 2010. In the West the index declined 2.4 percent to 108.1 in August but is 10.5 percent above a year ago.

Yun says the market is underperforming given a pent-up demand in household formation. “We continue to experience a pattern in which financially qualified home buyers, willing to stay well within their means, are being denied credit – a factor in elevated levels of contract failures,” he says. “Based on the improving fundamentals of population growth, some job additions, rent increases and higher stock market wealth, we should be seeing existing-home sales closer to 5.5 million, but are expecting just over 4.9 million this year. The unnecessarily restrictive mortgage underwriting standards are attenuating the housing recovery and are a risk factor for the overall economy.”

Although economic growth as measured by the Gross Domestic Product is expected to remain positive, uncertainty is causing some consumer hesitation. “We need to remove the road blocks to the housing recovery for people who are trying to take advantage of excellent affordability conditions,” Yun added. “Unfortunately, some buyers also will face notably higher mortgage rates on jumbo loans because of a lack of competition in the banking industry.”